Figure

Where ERCOT's peak growth came from, by weather zone, 2019 to 2026

Three metro zones supplied about two thirds of ERCOT's roughly 20,235 MW of coincident peak growth since 2019, while two small zones nearly doubled.

Two-panel bar chart decomposing ERCOT's roughly 20,235 MW of coincident June-July peak growth from 2019 to 2026 across its eight weather zones. The left panel ranks megawatts added and share of the total: DFW carries 27%, Houston 22%, South Central 17% and Far West 15%, so three metro zones account for about two thirds of the increase. The right panel shows each zone's growth rate on its own 2019 base, where the North zone, which takes in the Panhandle, leads at 77% and Far West follows at 75%, both off small bases. The eight parts sum to the whole by construction.

This figure is from the ERCOT July 2026 heat-wave case study, a primary-source reconstruction of an all-time demand record crossed on a week without record heat, and what the public record does and does not show about it.

Cite this figure

Corey Balgeman, "Where ERCOT's peak growth came from, by weather zone, 2019 to 2026," Grid Flexibility, 2026. https://gridflexibility.fyi/case-studies/ercot-heat-wave-july-2026/figures/ercot-growth-decomposition

Licensed CC BY 4.0: free to republish with attribution. License details.

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Last updated: 2026-08-05.