Figure

Hub price distribution on each of ERCOT's eight all-time peak days, 2011 to 2026

Across ERCOT's eight all-time peak days the median hub price barely moves, landing between $19 and $71/MWh, while the 95th percentile varies by a factor of 34.

Log-scale distribution chart pooling every 15-minute ERCOT hub price on each of the eight days the grid set an all-time demand record since it went nodal in December 2010. All eight medians land between $19 and $71 per MWh, drawn as a narrow band across the chart. The 95th percentile runs from $93 in 2016 to $3,192 in 2023, a factor of 34. July 22, 2026 sits with the quiet end of the series: its 95th percentile of $170 is above 2016's $93 and 2015's $137, and a fraction of 2018's $602 or 2022's $1,384. The eight days span three offer caps, $3,000 in 2011, $9,000 from 2015 to 2019 and $5,000 from 2022, and every median sits far below every cap. August 3, 2011 pinned its cap, so its 95th percentile and maximum are the same number.

This figure is from the ERCOT July 2026 heat-wave case study, a primary-source reconstruction of an all-time demand record crossed on a week without record heat, and what the public record does and does not show about it.

Cite this figure

Corey Balgeman, "Hub price distribution on each of ERCOT's eight all-time peak days, 2011 to 2026," Grid Flexibility, 2026. https://gridflexibility.fyi/case-studies/ercot-heat-wave-july-2026/figures/ercot-record-day-prices

Licensed CC BY 4.0: free to republish with attribution. License details.

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Last updated: 2026-08-05.