Figure

Three curves, one PJM grid: load growth, capacity price, demand response

PJM forecasts summer peaks growing from 156,373 MW (2026) to 222,106 MW (2036), a 65,733 MW increase. Over the same span the capacity clearing price ran from $28.92/MW-day (2024/25) to a record $333.44 (2027/28), with three straight auctions at the FERC-approved cap. Cleared demand response bottomed at 5,530.6 MW for 2026/2027, the delivery year in effect during the July 2026 heat wave, then turned up 32% in the 2027/2028 auction.

Three-panel chart for PJM. Left: forecast RTO summer peak rising from 156,373 MW in 2026 to 222,106 MW in 2036, labeled as PJM's forecast, not an observed peak. Middle: RTO capacity clearing price rising from $28.92/MW-day (2024/25) to $269.92, $329.17, a record $333.44 (2027/28), and $325.00, three straight auctions at the FERC-approved cap. Right: cleared demand response falling from 8,064.7 MW (2024/25) to a 5,710.3 MW low (2026/27), then turning up to 7,298.6 MW (2027/28) and 7,017.4 MW (2028/29); the last two are dimmed because only their base auctions have been held.

This figure is from the PJM July 2026 heat-wave case study, a primary-source reconstruction of how PJM's demand-response fleet held its July 2 peak below the 2006 record at a multi-year fleet low.

Cite this figure

Corey Balgeman, "Three curves, one PJM grid: load growth, capacity price, demand response," Grid Flexibility, 2026. https://gridflexibility.fyi/case-studies/pjm-heat-wave-july-2026/figures/pjm-three-curves-one-decade

Licensed CC BY 4.0: free to republish with attribution. License details.

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Last updated: 2026-07-20.